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Bullets, Beans


Monday, 6 February 2012

John Williams - Unemployment Rate at a Staggering 22.5%

John Williams, of Shadowstats, notes that manipulated government statistics are not changing the fact that the true SGS Unemployment Measure now sits at a staggering 22.5%. Williams can only use comparisons from the Great Depression to put things into proper perspective. Here is what Williams had to say: “The Economy Still Is Not Recovering. As discussed in the Opening Comments and Executive Summary, irrespective of the nature of the factors that helped to boost (recent) labor data, the general outlook has not changed. Even after the 2011 upside benchmark revisions, the January 2012 payroll employment level remains below the level that preceded the 2001 recession, more than a decade ago.”

John Williams continues:

“Adding the SGS estimate of excluded long-term discouraged workers back into the total unemployed and labor force, unemployment—more in line with common experience as estimated by the SGS-Alternate Unemployment Measure—notched higher to 22.5% (see above chart) in January from 22.4% in December.

There continues to be a noticeable divergence in the SGS series versus U.6. The reason for this is that U.6, again, only includes discouraged workers who have been discouraged for less than a year. As the discouraged-worker status ages, those that go beyond one year, fall off the government counting, and new workers enter ‘discouraged’ status....more

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