Ned Naylor-Leyland: “The Chain of Custody Behind Gold’s Price Setting Mechanism Appears to be Breaking”

I had the chance to speak with Ned Naylor-Leyland yesterday, Investment Director with Cheviot Asset Management, and adviser to an offshore precious metals fund. It was a spectacular interview, as Ned is one of the few truly free thinkers in the investment business today.

During the interview Ned shared his thoughts on the new PAGE(Pan Asia Gold Exchange) launch in 2012 & the great opportunities it will provide investors, the recent pullback in gold and silver, and what may end up taking gold to go much higher levels.



In regards to the impending PAGE launch Ned said, “The great thing about this new exchange in China and the philosphy behind it, is its harking back to the old days of gold where you pay cash and get your gold…they’re opening up a 1 to 1 fully allocated recieipts market in gold. If Jeff Christian is to be believed, there is 350 to 1 leverage[in the Western paper gold markets]. That will give you a 0.3% coverage in terms of real metal behind your contract.”

Ned further adds, “I think the opening of the new Chinese allocated market will change people’s perception of holding huge leveraged unallocated positions within the LBMA system.”

When asked about opportunities the PAGE market transition will provide, Ned said, “I think the arbitrage opportunity will manifest fairly quickly…The chain of custody behind the [gold] price setting mechanism appears to be breaking…the CME and comex futures market mechanisms are clearly nonsense, [investors] are leaving in droves as you would expect…I’ve labeled 2012 as the year of [gold] deliverance.”

In response to the current sell-off in gold, Ned commented, “You’ve got to bear in mind, they’re just selling leveraged paper, no one is selling physical. There is just a tsunami of paper selling in order to maintain the illusion of fiat value…and it will be overcome…the
physical buying will ride over the paper selling.”

He further stated that this sell-off, “gives [investors] an opportunity to diversify and hedge themselves at a reasonable level, because in due course we’ll get a huge move and the market will have recognized what is really going on...we’ll get some kind of event in the market which will drive price discovery and a change in the way markets behave in one fell swoop. The substantial illiquidity of gold and silver will prove to be a big problem for asset allocators and people trying to come in at that point.”

This was another outstanding “must-listen” interview with one of the real intellectuals in the business today.

To listen to the interview, left click the following link and/or right click and “save target as” or “save link as” to your desktop:

Interview with Ned Naylor-Leyland
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To learn more about Ned and Cheviot Asset Management visit: Cheviot.co.uk