The risk of contagion is large and the safety mechanism is convoluted (too many countries with too many conflicting interests). Europeans don’t have a handle on the situation; some banks and countries are already insolvent. The situation is extremely precarious.
Europeans will keep kicking the can down the road until it can’t be kicked any longer. When that happens, it’s going to get very ugly very quickly.
In this environment, gold should retain its safe-haven status. Investors will seek to protect their assets by using gold, one of the only currencies that’s a store of value that central banks can’t print at will. The volatility caused by the European markets will push gold prices as high as $2,500 in 2012...more
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